Friday, January 3, 2014

Long Term Interest Rates

Sunday, November 17, 2013


Thursday, November 14, 2013

WalMart EPS v Global GDP

Monday, November 11, 2013

Investment in CRE

This graph shows there is currently very little investment in offices, malls and lodging:

Investment in offices is down about 54% from the recent peak (as a percent of GDP).  There has been some increase in the Architecture Billings Index lately, so office investment might start to increase.  However the office vacancy rate is still very high, so any increase in investment will probably be small.

Investment in shopping malls peaked in 2007 and is down about 62% from the peak (note that investment includes remodels, so this will not fall to zero).   The vacancy rate for malls is still very high, so investment will probably stay low for some time.

Lodging investment peaked at 0.31% of GDP in Q3 2008 and is down about 65%.   With the hotel occupancy rate close to normal, it is possible that hotel investment will probably continue to increase.

Wednesday, November 6, 2013

How High Frequency Trading Works

Monday, November 4, 2013

Loosening Standards for CRE Loans

Wednesday, October 30, 2013

What Real Estate Bubble?