Where the Home Sales Are

A little exercise in data visualization... Q4 2010 existing home sales by state:

Dallas Area Home Sales Q4 2010

CMBS Delinquency Rate - Another Record High

In January, the delinquency rate for U.S. commercial real estate loans in CMBS jumped to 9.34% according to Trepp. That is the highest percentage of loans 30+ days delinquent, in foreclosure or REO in the history of the CMBS market.

The percentage of loans seriously delinquent (60+ days delinquent, in foreclosure, REO or non-performing balloons) is now 8.59%, an increase of 26 basis points.


Barclays reported that by vintage, the most substantial delinquency increase was recorded for 2001 and 2000 vintages (140bps and 60bps, respectively), as more loans are maturing and turn delinquent. The later vintages, 2006 and 2007, also posted gains in the 60 days category at 30bps and 50bps, respectively.

In line with Barclays' expectations, liquidations increased during the first month of the year. The firm said high loss severity liquidations spiked 16% to $1.3 billion between December and January. Low-loss severity liquidations totaled $238.4 million and zero –loss liquidations totaled $353.6 million.

"Thus, the overall liquidations posted a very high level at $1.9 billion," Barclays said.

Collapse of Retail CRE

A case for the collapse of retail commercial real estate due to over supply, a difficult retail sales environment, and a fundamental shift in purchasing channels from traditional bricks and mortar to online sales:



People will still need fresh milk and bread and other 'neighborhood' services. While big-box single tenant retail and mega malls may have big problems, we think local neighborhood strip centers still fill an important role.